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01/18/2007 - Reno, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Off to the best start in school history, the 15th-ranked Nevada Wolf Pack try to stay on top of the rest of the Western Athletic Conference as they welcome the Fresno State Bulldogs to the Lawlor Events Center tonight in Reno.
On Saturday, the Pack faced their toughest test yet, aside from their loss to in-state rival UNLV back in early December, as they went to overtime against Hawaii and managed to pull out a 68-66 victory out on the island. The win was the ninth straight for the program, which previously boasted a 15-2 mark after 17 games back in 1951-52.
As for the Bulldogs, they had only two setbacks heading into play a week ago, but since then the team has fallen to Hawaii and San Jose State, both on the road. The 64-61 defeat at the hands of the Spartans on Saturday was one of the worst in recent memory for FSU because San Jose was a mere 1-13 heading into that meeting.
With respect to the all-time series between these two schools on the hardwood, the Pack hold a 38-34 lead. Winners of 22 of the 36 games played in Reno, Nevada has captured victories in seven of the last 10 meetings overall regardless of location.
Fresno State shot just 36.5 percent from the field and turned the ball over 16 times as the team bowed to San Jose State at The Event Center over the weekend. Hector Hernandez scored all 15 of his points on 5-of-9 shooting behind the three-point line, while Eddie Miller checked in with 14 points on 4-of-8 beyond the arc off the bench. Ja'Vance Coleman added 12 points and five assists, but he made a mere 2-of-10 from the floor, followed by Quinton Hosley who posted a double-double with 10 points and 12 boards in the outing. Hosley remains the top scorer for the Bulldogs with his 14.1 ppg and is also one of the better rebounders on the squad with 8.7 rpg. Dominic McGuire (12.2 ppg) is responsible for 9.2 rpg and has already recorded 63 blocked shots which, as of Tuesday had him ranked seventh in the nation with an average of 3.7 rejections per game. At 53 percent from three-point range, Hernandez was listed as the fourth-best perimeter shooter in the nation heading into play this week.
Two-time WAC Player of the Year Nick Fazekas has missed the last two games for the Wolf Pack with an ankle injury and at the moment it doesn't appear as though he is going to be back on the floor tonight either. Without him in the lineup on Saturday, the Pack had to go to overtime to beat Hawaii by just a single bucket in Honolulu. Ramon Sessions posted 19 points and Kyle Shiloh had 18 on 8-of-10 shooting from the field. Marcelus Kemp chipped in 11 points, but he only reached that after making a mere 4-of-17 from the floor. With Fazekas on the sidelines, it has been Kemp who has held the team together offensively, averaging 23.3 ppg over the four league outings. Kemp is putting up 19.2 ppg and shooting 42.2 percent from three- point range overall this season. Sessions and Shiloh have accounted for 13.8 and 12.8 ppg, respectively, in conference play as well. Fazekas was shooting 72.2 percent from the field and clearing 10 rpg in his two WAC games, so Nevada has a lot of work to do if it is going to come out of this meeting unscathed.
<< Archer's 63 leads in Abu Dhabi
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Phillip Archer fired a
nine-under 63 on Thursday to take a three-shot lead after one round at the Abu
Dhabi Golf Championship.
Behind him sit some of the best players in the field.
R
<< Sharapova, Clijsters, Hingis reach third round at Aussie Open
Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A trio of former world No. 1s --
Maria Sharapova, Kim Clijsters and Martina Hingis -- were among Thursday's
second-round winners at the 2007 Australian Open.
The top-seeded and reigning U.S. Open cha
<< Clippers edge shorthanded Warriors
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Elton Brand posted 27 points and 11
rebounds and the Los Angeles Clippers wrapped up a home-and-home set against
the shorthanded Golden State Warriors with a 115-109 victory at the Staples
Center.
<< Blazers pound road-weary Cavs
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Zach Randolph scored 26 points and pulled down
12 rebounds, as the Portland Trail Blazers rolled to a 94-76 victory over the
road-weary Cleveland Cavaliers.
Brandon Roy added 19 points and 10 rebounds for the
Streaking Ducks host Cardinal >>
Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-ranked Oregon Ducks are an explosive
scoring team, and they will attempt to cruise past the Stanford Cardinal
in Pac-10 Conference action.
Three straight victories have enabled the Cardinal to
Blue Devils and Demon Deacons meet up in Durham >>
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The "Cameron Crazies" will be in full force
tonight as the 14th-ranked Duke Blue Devils play host to the Wake Forest
Demon Deacons in ACC action.
Wake Forest is a respectable 9-7 overall this seaso
Wildcats on the prowl in the City of Angels >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 11th-ranked Arizona Wildcats pull into
Los Angeles for a pair of Pac-10 games this week, starting with this
evening's showdown with the USC Trojans from the new Galen Center.
Lute Olson's
Shaq on the mend as Heat host Pacers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The defending champion Miami Heat are expecting the return
of center Shaquille O'Neal this evening when they host the revamped Indiana
Pacers at AmericanAirlines Arena.
O'Neal has played in just four games this season afte
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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