Gaming: Ride the Sun Belt train for another week

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/10/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After the first Five-Star play of the season proved victorious (Arkansas State plus the points at Auburn), let's roll with another Sun Belt Conference squad, this time against a Big East foe.

Florida International hosts Rutgers just one year after dropping a 23-15 decision to the Scarlet Knights in New Jersey. The Golden Panthers covered the spread with 15 fourth-quarter points after trailing 23-0.

Rutgers scored just one offensive touchdown the entire contest while picking up 10 of its 23 points off FIU turnovers. In addition, Tom Savage completed only 11-of-28 passes for 185 yards and the Scarlet Knights' quarterback was also sacked four times.

Fast-forward to this season and Savage is right back where he was a year ago with a 10-of-19 performance for just 148 yards in last week's matchup with Norfolk State. The sophomore signal-caller was sacked three times by the Spartans, who trailed by only six points (6-0) at the half.

The Rutgers offensive line, which features three new starters, still needs a lot of work as the ground game was non-existent in the first half with just 84 yards against the Football Championship Subdivision school. And even though FIU is one of the lower-echelon Football Bowl Subdivision clubs, the Golden Panthers have fared well in this type of situation in the past.

The Panthers are a perfect 3-0 in their FBS existence when getting two touchdowns or more at home. They also have not lost a home game by more than 10 points since the 2007 campaign, and that includes matchups with Troy and South Florida.

FIU sports a new quarterback this season as well. Wesley Carroll, who transferred from Mississippi State last year, has a bevy of top-notch receivers at his disposal, led by T.Y. Hilton, who is finally healthy after an injury- plagued 2009 season.

In order for the Scarlet Knights to gain a convincing victory, Tom Savage and the rest of the offense must show marked improvement from the previous game. And when you consider the fact the quarterback sports a 7-6 touchdown/interception ratio in his last seven games, it will be extremely difficult for the Knights to run away from the Panthers, especially in Miami.

Take FIU plus the points.

The second Five-Star play of the week is a matchup of the Mountain West versus the WAC.

San Diego State travels to New Mexico State after knocking off Nicholls State, 47-0. Defeating the Colonels by 47 isn't saying much considering Air Force crushed them by 72 last season, and the Falcons then proceeded to lose to Minnesota the following week.

Given the fact the Aztecs are 3-21 SU on the road over the last four years it is shocking they are such heavy favorites in Las Cruces.

New Mexico State began last season winning three of its first six games before dropping its final seven. The Aggies have an underrated offensive line and a running back in Seth Smith that ripped off over 1,000 yards last year. They also bring in a new quarterback, and more importantly, a new offensive coordinator to help revive the passing game.

These two teams met last season with San Diego State coming out on top, 34-17, with 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Since this will be New Mexico State's first game in 2010, the extra week of practice, along with the fact the game will be played at home, should help the Aggies to give the Aztecs all they can handle and then some.

Take New Mexico State plus the points.

THE LONE THREE-STAR PLAY

Texas A&M has been slowly but surely building back its program after hiring Mike Sherman as head coach prior to 2008, but the fruits of all the hard work will pay off in 2010. The Aggies opened the year with a victory over Stephen F. Austin and should easily make it 2-0 when they take on Louisiana Tech.

The Bulldogs are in the midst of a major change in offensive philosophy moving to the spread behind new head coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. Unfortunately, the transition was not too smooth in week one when the offense picked up just 26 total yards in the entire second half against Grambling. In fact, the team also gained only nine yards in its final four first-half possessions.

Furthermore, the road wasn't too kind to Louisiana Tech last season with seven losses in seven games, so don't expect much improvement down in College Station where the Aggies went 4-1 ATS as favorites last season.

Take Texas A&M minus the points.

TWO-STAR PLAYS

Go with three favorites and two underdogs in week two. Take LSU (over Vanderbilt), Iowa (against Iowa State), and Kentucky (versus Western Kentucky), along with Kansas (plus the points against Georgia Tech), and Arkansas State (plus the points versus Louisiana).

ONE-STAR CHOICES

Three plays highlight the One-Star selections this week. Go with UTEP (plus the points at Houston), Oklahoma State (minus the points versus Troy), and BYU (over Air Force).

AFTER ONE WEEK

Yours truly went 6-3-2 last week for a 64% winning percentage. Breaking the totals down by the star system, the Five-Star plays are 1-0, the Three-Star selections are 2-0-1, the Two-Star picks are 2-1-1, and the One-Star choices are 1-2.

As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are those games where my key selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks - games with at least a five- point differential between my line and the actual line. Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.

THIS WEEK'S JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"

1) Ohio State, 101.5; 2) Boise State, 101; 3-T) Alabama and Oregon, 100.5; 5-T) Florida, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Iowa, 98; 9) Texas, 97.5; 10) Oklahoma, 97; 11) LSU, 96.5; 12) Georgia, 96

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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