Buckeyes battle Badgers in Big Ten brawl

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/14/2009 - Madison, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 24th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes invade Madison this evening for a Big Ten Conference clash with the Wisconsin Badgers.

Ohio State has won its last four games to move to 17-5 overall and 7-4 in conference. The Buckeyes have been idle since last Saturday when they defeated Minnesota by a 64-58 margin. They hope to improve a 3-3 record in true road games tonight, but that won't be easy against a Wisconsin team that has won 10 of its 13 home tilts.

The Badgers are riding a three-game overall winning streak that includes a 69-52 romp over Iowa on Wednesday. They are 15-9 overall, but their 6-6 league record could certainly stand some improvement.

Ohio State owns a 79-62 series advantage over Wisconsin, but the Badgers won the most recent meeting last season.

Evan Turner has been the leading scorer for Ohio State in five consecutive outings and is netting 17.0 ppg through 22 games. He is shooting 50.8 percent from the floor while pulling down 7.5 rpg, and Turner also leads the team with 72 assists and 43 steals, proof of his versatility. William Buford checks in with 11.8 ppg, and Jon Diebler rounds out a trio of double-digit scorers with 11.0 ppg. In the six-point win over Minnesota last weekend, Turner posted 18 points and 10 rebounds, while Diebler and Buford added 11 points apiece. Jeremie Simmons and B.J. Mullens contributed 10 points apiece for the Buckeyes who earned a 14-7 edge in points from the foul line and forced 17 turnovers.

Like Ohio State, Wisconsin boasts three players with double-digit scoring averages. Marcus Landry is tops with his 12.8 ppg, and Trevon Hughes adds 11.6 ppg along with team highs of 72 assists and 30 steals. Jason Bohannon is scoring 11.0 ppg for the Badgers, who are netting 65.6 ppg while limiting opponents to 60.0 ppg. Joe Krabbenhoft scored 16 points for Wisconsin in Wednesday's victory over Iowa. Bohannon added 15 points and Hughes tallied 14 points and six assists. The Badgers shot 53.1 percent from the floor, including a 7-of-12 effort from three-point range. They also finished with 14 assists against only six turnovers, while Iowa posted a mere four assists with 14 giveaways. A 27-21 rebounding advantage helped the cause for Wisconsin.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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