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12/18/2008 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Krejci netted his first career hat trick and Phil Kessel continued his amazing points streak with two goals and an assist, as Boston beat Toronto, 8-5, securing its 12th straight home win.
Marc Savard added a goal and three assists for the Bruins, who won for the eighth time in nine games to move their record to 22-5-4, tops in the Eastern Conference. Their current home win streak is the longest since a 16-game run during the 1975-76 season.
The Bruins last lost on home ice with a 4-2 setback to Toronto on October 23.
Kessel has a 16-game points streak, the longest by a Bruin since Adam Oates recorded points in 20 straight games from January 7 - February 20, 1997.
Marco Sturm and Michael Ryder also scored for the Bruins. Tim Thomas was pulled after allowing five goals on 23 shots through two periods, but Manny Fernandez held down the fort by stopping all 13 shots he faced in the third.
Vesa Toskala and Curtis Joseph each gave up four goals for the Maple Leafs, who had a three-game win streak broken. Toskala faced 11 shots and Joseph 16 attempts. Alexei Ponikarovsky, Nik Antropov, Mikhail Grabovski, Jason Blake and Pavel Kubina had the goals for Toronto.
The Bruins nursed a 6-5 lead entering the third period, when both teams decided to use different netminders. Toskala, who was pulled in the first for Joseph, was on the ice again for the third, while Fernandez was at the other end for Boston.
Boston expanded its advantage at the 10:42 mark of the third during a power play as Ryder skated to the left circle before unleashing a shot that found the net.
Krejci then capped off his huge night with his 11th goal of the season -- a power-play tally -- with 4:16 remaining. Savard passed the puck from the right side to the left of the net where Krejci was there for the easy tap in.
Sturm, who had missed the previous 12 games with concussion-like symptoms, scored only 36 seconds into the contest. Chuck Kobasew took the original long shot that was stopped by Toskala, but Sturm was in front for the rebound.
Krejci scored nearly four minutes later on the power play from in front. Kessel assisted on the score to extend his points streak and it marked a quick goaltender change for the Maple Leafs.
Kubina's left circle shot found the back of the net on the power play at the 7:23 mark of the first.
Sturm departed the game with a left knee injury late in the opening period, but the Bruins scored three times in a span of 2:53 early in the second to expand their lead to 5-1.
Savard netted his ninth of the season, this one coming on the power play on a redirection of a shot from Zdeno Chara. Krejci scored at the 2:03 mark on a great individual effort as he skated through the left circle, got behind Joseph and scored from the left side of the net.
Kessel provided the four-goal margin with his 20th of the season at the 4:21 mark as his shot from the right circle eluded Joseph high into the net.
Ponikarovsky scored just over four minutes later, and Antropov made it 5-3 midway through the stanza on a tip-in of a John Mitchell shot.
Grabovski got a fortunate bounce and put in the disc from in close with 3:24 remaining in the second, but Kessel came right back by scoring on a shot from the right circle with two minutes left in the period.
Thomas was penalized for holding and the Maple Leafs took advantage on the power play with Blake scoring on a wrister from the right circle with 43.4 seconds left in the middle stanza.
Game Notes
Kessel also has the team's longest current ironman streak at 156 regular season games, dating back to January 9, 2007 at Ottawa. His last game missed was January 6, 2007, the final game of 11 he missed following a testicular cancer diagnosis and surgery...The Bruins are 17-2-1 in their last 20 games, outscoring their opponents by a 85-42 margin in those contests...Toronto was 2-for-5 on the power play, while the Bruins were 4-for-6...Boston's franchise mark for longest home win streak is 20, an NHL record, set during the 1929-30 season.
<< Lyon visits Caen trying to secure first at break
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Caen.
Lyon tied second-place Marseille, which is three points back with Bordeaux
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Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Corvo scored on a sensational individual
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Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sergei Kostitsyn, Steve Begin and Guillaume
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Alex Kovalev and Ma
<< Chivas midfielder Kljestan honored by U.S. soccer
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chivas USA midfielder Sacha Kljestan was honored
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Red Wings make statement with shutout of Sharks >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pavel Datsyuk collected four points with a pair
of goals and Ty Conklin stopped all 24 San Jose shots as the Detroit Red Wings
handed the Sharks their first regulation loss since November 9 in convincing
fashion
Nelson sparks Magic win over Spurs >>
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jameer Nelson scored 11 of his game-high 24
points in the fourth quarter as the Orlando Magic welcomed back Dwight Howard
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Nelson also logged seven assists,
Gonzaga crushes winless Texas Southern >>
Spokane, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Heytvelt scored 21 points and grabbed
seven rebounds, as the eighth-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs routed the Texas
Southern Tigers, 84-42.
Micah Downs had 14 points for Gonzaga (8-1), which bounced
Colts rally to beat Jags, clinch playoff berth >>
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Keiwan Ratliff returned an interception 35
yards for the go-ahead score late in the fourth quarter, and Peyton Manning
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eighth
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting