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08/18/2010 - Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to bounce back from just their second loss of the season, the Montreal Alouettes entertain the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at McGill Stadium on Thursday night.
According to the most recent power rankings in the CFL, this matchup pits the second and third-strongest clubs against each other, despite the Blue Bombers having just two victories on the season thus far.
Last week the Bombers were handed their third straight loss and the fifth in the last six attempts as they bowed to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats by a final of 39-28. In a matter of just seven weeks, the matchup marked the fourth time the two division foes had met and left Hamilton with a 3-1 season series advantage as a result.
Buck Pierce was back in as the starter at quarterback for the Blue Bombers, but he failed to make much of a difference as he completed just 7-of-12 passes for 63 yards, leading to one touchdown and one interception. Head coach Paul LaPolice felt Pierce had trouble moving and his lack of mobility was throwing off his accuracy, so the head coach decided to insert Steven Jyles back into the lineup. While the backup signal-caller didn't lead his team to victory, he did manage to convert 14-of-22 passes for 227 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The other problem that arose for the Blue Bombers just before the game started was an injury to kicker Louie Sakoda, thus causing the team to change its game plan.
As for the Alouettes, a team that was leading the Eastern Division with a 5-1 mark heading into its contest with Toronto last weekend, they were dealt a surprising blow in their 37-22 loss to the Argonauts on the road.
Quarterback Anthony Calvillo converted 37-of-49 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns, to go along with one interception, but early in the game there was a question about his ability to hold onto the ball due to an injured finger.
The Als started off the meeting slow, failing to score a single point in a quarter for the first time this season as they were blanked in the opening frame. Calvillo did up his all-time touchdown total to 369 in the decision, leaving him just 25 behind the CFL's all-time leader, Damon Allen, but surely the signal-caller would have preferred the win instead. Heading into the matchup with Toronto the Als had dominated the series, winning seven in a row over the Argos.
Despite the setback, slotback Ben Cahoon continued his assault on the history books as he reeled in a game-high 10 passes for 99 yards. With the effort Cahoon moved into second place all-time on the CFL receptions list, moving past Darren Flutie who had 972 catches in his 12 seasons. Now in his 13th campaign Cahoon, who has advanced his streak of 134 games with at least one reception and is third all-time behind Don Narcisse (216) and Tony Gabriel (137), is up to 981 catches for his career and trails only Terry Vaughn who was responsible for 1,006 receptions during his amazing career.
Even though Calvillo had a huge game in terms of numbers last week, the situation with his hand is still a concern for the Als, not to mention the lack of productivity from running back Avon Cobourne who gained a mere 26 yards on 11 carries. It was the second straight week that Cobourne had posted a weak effort, having logged just 34 yards on seven attempts versus Saskatchewan. The Als were expecting Cobourne to have a game that was much like the effort he put together against Toronto at the end of July when he gained 115 yards on the ground and another 116 yards through the air, but it just wasn't meant to be.
Because of the last two weeks, Cobourne has dropped to seventh in the league in rushing with only 403 yards on 82 attempts, while someone like Winnipeg's Fred Reid is fifth in the CFL after seven games with his 499 yards, averaging better than six yards per attempt.
The big question for this game will be which quarterback will be seeing the most action for the Blue Bombers. But whether it is Pierce or Jyles, the main target down the field will remain the same. Averaging close to 20 yards per catch, Terrence Edwards has been eating up the yards for the Bombers and ranks second in the league with his 687 yards at the moment. His seven touchdown catches, two of which he made last week, have him pacing the entire league. The rest of the pass catchers on the Winnipeg roster have combined for only five TD receptions, so that says a lot about how valuable Edwards is to the success of this group.
Conversely, as big a game as Cahoon had for the Als last weekend, he has still not made it into the end zone in 2010 and is averaging barely half the yards (10.5 per catch) that Edwards is at the moment.
According to league records, Montreal maintains a 39-32-7 advantage over the Blue Bombers in regular-season meetings dating back to 1946, the most recent of those encounters taking place last November with Montreal posting a 48-13 win. A week earlier it was Winnipeg that thumped the Als in a 41-24 decision on its home field.
The teams are scheduled to collide two more times during the regular season, on September 24 in Winnipeg, and back here again in the middle of October.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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