Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
Simply put, Michigan State is getting the job done at both ends of the court this season. The Spartans, who shoot 48.4 percent from the floor and knock down 37.6 percent of their three-point tries, average a robust 76.1 ppg, despite boasting just two double-digit scorers in Draymond Green (15.0 ppg, 10.2 rpg) and Keith Appling (12.6 ppg, team-high 79 assists). In Big Ten games alone, MSU leads the conference in both field goal percentage (.509) and three-point field goal percentage (.448). From a defensive standpoint, the Spartans control the opposition to the tune of 60.6 ppg on shooting efforts of only 38.0 percent overall and 29.4 percent from beyond the arc. Add a +9.7 rebounding margin to the equation and it's no wonder the team is enjoying yet another highly successful campaign. Branden Dawson scored a game-high 14 points in the recent rout of Purdue, as Michigan State shot a blistering 60.0 percent from the floor, converting 7-of-13 three-point tries along the way. The Boilermakers were held to just 29.0 percent field goal efficiency, and they were a woeful 3-of-20 from beyond the arc. MSU outscored PU on the break, 18-0.
Mississippi State is enjoying another solid campaign with veteran coach Rick Stansbury at the helm, as the team is 16-4 overall and has won three of its first five SEC affairs. The Bulldogs picked up an important conference road win over the weekend, slipping past Vanderbilt in overtime, 78-77. MSU is 11-1 at home this season, its lone setback at Humphrey Coliseum coming against Akron in early November.
This game marks the 201st meeting all-time between LSU and MSU, with the Tigers clinging to a 104-96 advantage. The Bulldogs have won four of the last five meetings, although LSU has been victorious in two of the last three played in Starkville, including last year's 84-82 final.
Lubbock, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Still in search of their first Big 12 Conference win of the season, the Texas Tech Red Raiders give it another go tonight, although accomplishing the feat won't be easy as the 22nd-ranked Kansas State Wildcats are the opponent. Kansas State opened the year an impressive 11-1, but the start of Big 12 play didn't go quite the way head coach Frank Martin had hoped as the his team dropped three of its first four league bouts. The Wildcats have bounced back however, winning each of their last two, the most recent of which being a 66-58 decision at Oklahoma State on Saturday. The win snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Cowboys in Stillwater, and improved K-State to 14-4 overall, 3-3 in conference and 2-2 in true road games.
Kansas State owns a narrow 14-12 lead in the all-time series with Texas Tech, and the Wildcats have won four of the last five meetings.
Robert Lewandowski scored 20 points and grabbed six rebounds, but he was the only Red Raider to reach double figures in what turned out to be a 76-52 loss to visiting Iowa State over the weekend. Texas Tech made good on only 35.1 percent of its total shots, missing 13-of-18 three-point tries along the way, and the team was guilty of 15 turnovers while also losing the rebounding battle, 40-32. The Cyclones controlled the paint to the tune of a 34-16 advantage, while they scored three times as many points off giveaways as did the Red Raiders (21-7). Offensive production has been the primary problem for Texas Tech this season, as the team is averaging just 63.3 ppg despite hitting 45 percent of its field goal attempts, and 36.8 percent of its long-range bombs. Defensively, Tech hasn't been all that bad, as foes are putting up 67.2 ppg behind shooting percentages that are worse than what it turns in (.409 overall, .322 three-point FG). Turnovers have plagued the Red Raiders, as they are guilty of 17 miscues per outing compared to 12.5 tpg for the opposition. Jordan Tolbert (12.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) is the only player currently averaging double digits in the scoring column for Texas Tech, and he is the team's leading rebounder as well.
Boise, ID (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Off to their best start in two decades, the 12th- ranked UNLV Runnin' Rebels take their act on the road tonight as they challenge the latest addition to the Mountain West Conference, the Boise State Broncos, at Taco Bell Arena. Sure, there have been a few bumps in the road for the Runnin' Rebels this season, such as the 89-70 blowout loss to Wichita State the first week of December, but can anyone really blame them for bowing to Wisconsin and San Diego State, both of which were nationally ranked at the time? Since that 69-67 setback to the Aztecs on the road on January 14, UNLV has bounced back with convincing league victories, the most recent of those being an 80-63 domination of New Mexico at home over the weekend.
Over the weekend, the Broncos appeared to be well on their way to their first MWC win, but a double-digit lead in the second half against TCU was erased and Boise State was dealt a 54 52 setback in Fort Worth, which means BSU is still winless on the road in seven tries and has fallen in four straight outings overall.
<<
Breslin Center Last Time Pound Crush On State
<<
West Virginia Recalls Caa On Montana
<<
Murray Grand Salvage Smash From Aussie
Rebounds Beats Spartans At Lead >>
World Solheim Highlight Name Down Greens >>
Rebounds Trip Claim Disable With Quarter >>
Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value
If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture. Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).
For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot. The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.
TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.
"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,' it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."
"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.
Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash. Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting